Dubai World Cup 2018

This Saturday is Dubai World Cup day and the english bookmakers were fast to prize up the races, perhaps too fast in some cases.

Godolphin Mile (dirt)

I successfully predicted Kimbear to beat favorite Heavy Metal on Super Saturday. Heavy Metal is favorite again, now at 7/4 and due to a bad draw Kimbear is 7/2. Rosa Imperial and the Japanese Raider Akito Crescent (by War Emblem) is also drawn wide. Actually, it looks like a horse drawn eight had som luck in the draw and Economic Model, trained by Chad Brown with Joel Rosario in the saddle, is available at 7/2. Obviously, the well-drawn longshots have a good chance of springing a surprise but Economic Model has enough tactical pace to be able to rate behind confirmed front-runner Heavy Metal. Kimbear is likely to try to keep up with Heavy Metal as long as possible and this could put the race in Economic Model’s hands.

In the two-miler, the Gold Cup should go the Europeans. Rare Rhythm (2/1) defeated the classy Vazirabad (9/4) last time out but Vazirabad is bound to be brought forward from that race and will appreciate the extra distance in this race. Vazirabad is the reigning champion and most importantly for me, he looked like he still has it in his last race. Should reverse the form.

For those looking for a prize, look no further than Big Orange (6/1) who is good enough to win a race like this (Gold Cup winner at Royal Ascot). Sheikhzayedroad 20/1) is a mainstay in this kind of races and should be primed for this now when his racing clock is running out. Red Galileo is extremely consistent and is overprized at 50/1.

UAE Derby is a fascinating event this year. Breaking from the inside, Rayya might be hard to catch. She won the Oaks from the lead and won’t be far away at the finish. She is down to 9/1 after opening at 12/1. She is still value. Godolphin’s Gold Town won the 2000 Guineas by 10 lengths but you have to question the quality of the race. The dam of Gold Town is Godolphin’s Pimpernel by Invincible Spirit. She was fast but didn’t stay at all. Gold Town’s father, Street Cry (also Godolphin), finished second in this race, but did win the World Cup later and was taken away far too young as one of the world’s most influential sires. 6/5 is too short an odds, especially when Coolmore is in this race. Mendelssohn (5/2) is sure to be in this with a shout when they are turning for home and I really like them Scat Daddy’s. This is all about Mendelssohn taking to the dirt and I will take my chances with him. The favorite might be trapped in a pace duel with Rayya, and I will also add Reride (Candy Ride) and Castellano here. Coolmore have a couple of more horses in the race and one of them could also be there for the early fractions while Mendelssohn is rating behind them. Wishful thinking on my part? Maybee…

Ertijaal is a non-runner in the Al Quoz Sprint over 6 furlongs on the turf. I was impressed with Jungle Cat (9/2) on Super Saturday and I can’t really justify Blue Point being the odds-on favorite here at 5 to 6. I like Stormy Liberal (25/1) here drawn in fifth but I also like another Peter Miller horse. Stormy Liberal beat my play of the day, Richard’s Boy, at Del Mar in the BC Turf Sprint. Today’s distance is better for Richard’s Boy who is likely to be the leader. The favorite has some serious pace as well but is drawn wide. The lead could be easy with a lot of held up types. Perhaps Jungle Cat will be stalking the pace and be just too good but I will bet Richard’s Boy at 33/1 each way with a saver on Stormy Liberal.

With sires like Posse, Kantharos, Speightstown, Wildcat Heir, More Than Ready, Dubawi and Camacho featured in this race it is not hard to guess that we talk about dirt and a shorter distance, namely 1200 meters (6 furlongs). The prize money is a hefty two million dollar and I think I have an easy winner here. It won’t be XY Jet for me, that’s for sure. I watched him go down as a heavy favorite at my home track, Laurel Park in November. He has taken a couple of lesser races lately and his chance is that he will get an easy lead. Roy H is a far classier horse and even though I wasn’t impressed by his debut this season I am sure that he can press XY Jet and have that one beaten in the stretch. With a too hot a pace Mind Your Biscuits might fall into the race and the fans will all root for the evergreen Reynaldothewizard. The trifecta should go to team USA.

Dubai Turf (9f) has a strong favorite in Benbatl (3/1) who lost to Blair House 14/1 in the Jebel Hatta. Benbatl looked one-paced over the stretch but has a better draw today and could run a big race. I believed heavily in Benbatl last time out and must say I will leave him today and opt for Trais Fluors (10/1) from Fabre and with Vincent Cheminaud up. The extra distance is intriguing and the prize is right. Good chance. I have also always liked Lancaster Bomber and might have a small bet there as well. The Japanese raiders are hard to handicap but they don’t win often here, do they?

The Sheema Classic is worth 6 million dollars! The classic distance is used (12 f) and Cloth of Stars is the favorite at 9/4. The Godolphin horse was second to Enable in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and that form knocks most here. There has been a few to many second placings for my liking and I am not sure the ground will do him any favors here. The Japanese runners, Rey de Oro, Muzu Katchan and Satono Crown, all look good on paper and could perhaps take this. I will go with the in-form Hawkbill proven over course and distance. I liked him last time out when he showed he sure was sharp enough. He will likely be brought forward a little from that race and the conditions will sure fit this son of Kitten’s Joy. 9/1 is very generous.

World Cup it is! 10 million dollars will be paid out after the race and bookmakers say that the Baffert/Castellano couple are likely to win the lion’s share. Prized at evens he is not much value, but still a likely winner of this race. The second favorite is North America at 7/1 but I prefer Forever Unbridled. She defeated Songbird last year and is given 2 kilos here. I am not worried by the distance as she always does her best job near the finish line. Gunnevera will run his race and I am sure that Thunder Snow will be asked to do everything he can here and shouldn’t be forgotten.

Annonser

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under Uncategorized

Cheltenham Day 4 2018

Day 3 was a formidable success for the Irish, and most notably so for Gordon Elliott who saddled 3 winners while Willie Mullins had two. Add Henry de Bromhead and the Irish had 6 out of 7 winners on the card. Davy Russell rode three of them.

My betting was ok with Shattered Love winning the first much shorter than my 15/2 taken the day before. Cue Card was not himself but I wrote that Balko des Flos is a really good one who could get Russell another win. Supasundae came in second which was ok. Laurina was very much the best, and Maria’s Benefit was involved in a duel for the lead for most of the race. Off course I backed the Irish in the last, where they lost…

Now it is Gold Cup Day and we start off with the Triumph Hurdle. Normally Apple’s Shakira would be a banker. The unbeaten full sister to Apple’s Jade will relish the ground but after today it would be unwise to take low odds on her with the Irish trainer totally dominating this year’s festival. Farclas is trained by Gordon Elliott and must be respected as must Stormy Island for Willie Mullins. Stablemate Saldier was a group horse in France on the Flat last year and could spring a surprise here. I will take comfort in Nicky Henderson’s good track record in this race and will buy Apple’s Shakira at 7/4.

26 runners in a Handicap Hurdle. I like the Mullins’ runners but has a hard time separating them. Bleu et Rouge has to much weight to carry and I will play the other four Willie Mullins-trained horses in an exacta box.

Penhill won yesterday and last year he won Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. This is a 3m race and we are looking for a horse proven at the distance. Santini knows how to beat second favorite Chef des Obeaux who was impressive over the distance. Santini won over Black Op last time out and that form was franked when Black Op was runner up to Samcro the other day. Poetic Rhythm is a Grade 1 winner and available at 10/1. This is a very tricky race and to be able to get 10/1 on a horse like this is not very common.

Next up is the Gold Cup, la crème de la crème in the Steeplechase world and always a contender when it comes to naming the world’s greatest races.  This is not a race for upsets, the front three in the market ”always” wins.  Normally you would need a rating of 166 or more and your age should be between 7 and 10. Might Bite is the only one with previous Cheltenham success if we look at the first three in the betting. Might Bite beat Double Shuffle and Tea For Two in the King George a race always very important to determine the winner in this race. It is actually very strange that the latter two horses are available at 66/1 and 100/1. They are good horses with class enough to win this, but they have never won at Cheltenham. Road To Respect has won here and comes from a Grade 1 win at Leopardstown where he defeated Balko des Flos! I will go with the luck of the Irish and have bought Road To Respect each way at 12/1. I will also have a few cents on the overpriced horses mentioned earlier.

In the Foxhunters I notice that the good Caid de Berlais has been running very well in Point to Points. He is good enough to give the favorites a run for the money. I will take 14/1 each way. Don’t forget about last years winner, Pacha du Polder, last years winners tend do good again.

Next comes a Handicap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys. I will just go with the best Gordon Elliott horse here. Flawless Escape is available at 8/1 and I will take it.

Can you feel that you are getting tired of the festival? I sure can. But as soon at the last one is over, I will start to long for next year. The Grand Annual is impossible to handicap, I will stick to my Gordon Elliott recipe and bet the Game Changer each way at 22/1.

Good luck, we will meet again at the windows come Aintree, Meydan, Churchill Downs.

Best,

Ottertheoracle

Twitter handle @ottertheoracle

 

 

 

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under Uncategorized

Cheltenham Day 3 2018

Ok, day 2 was not a very good day betting-wise, but at least we could the fantastic sport. The commentators from TVG are clueless of course and have obviously not seen much racing other than traditional American racing. That they don’t follow the screen is obvious when they ask why there isn’t a winners’ circle even though we could see the winner going there just a minute ago. Well, well, it will be even better next year and I am thankful for the fantastic coverage.

The Irish won 6 of 7. Mullins 2 and Gordon Elliott 3 and Patrick G Kelly 1.

Altior was fantastic in the Queen Mother’s. I had already started to count my winning when Min was cruising and Altior looked beaten two out. Altior found plenty under urging and in the end, he was the one who cruised past a struggling Min. My next bet was on Urgent de Gregaine who traveled like a winner but couldn’t get to Tiger Roll. It was a nice payout on the each-way bet but it didn’t save the day.

Worse, Ruby was injured and will miss the rest of Cheltenham! He fell under his horse at the second last in the RSA and broke a leg. It won’t be easy to replace him.

JLT Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles. Invitation Only is now looking for a new partner with Ruby on the sidelines. The stable form is fantastic and the going is now soft which should be a plus. Great chance. Finian’s Oscar was a bitter disappointment when last seen and cannot be trusted.  Terrefort is a contender for Nicky Henderson/Daryl Jacob but my money will go to the Gordon Elliott runner Shattered Love. She is the only mare in the field, wouldn’t mind some more rain or some extra distance but has proven herself very versatile over fences. I go each way at 15/2.

A 3m Handicap Hurdle with 4 McManus runners. I like the rank outsider Dell’Arca at 40/1 from a nice mark. There is a tendency for horses with a high weight here, but you shouldn’t be rated over 150 if you want to win this. Dell’Arca fits the billing, but more popular in the betting is the Philip Hobbs runner Louis’ Vac Pouch. McManus has a good track record as an owner in this one and the favorite Glenloe is trained by Gordon Elliott and will, of course, have an excellent chance.  My money goes to Dell’Arca each-way with a small win bet on the Hobbs runner as well.

The Ryanair Chase over 2m5f is a fantastic race this year. You will find the megastar and last year’s winner, Un de Sceaux, trying to fend off the attack from the ever young Cue Card. All my English friends are whispering about Frodon and Balko des Flos is a really good one who could get Davy Russell his second win this festival. The brain says Un de Sceaux but the heart says Cue Card. They haven’t really met during their long careers as Cue Card has contested a lot of 3-mile races and Un de Sceaux a lot of 2-mile races. Both have won this race before. Both like to lead or track the leader. I will go with the heart in this one and bet Cue Card at 13/2.

The Stayer’s Hurdle over 3 miles and Sam Spinner is the favorite. Supasundae beat the mighty Faugheen last time out but is held by Apple’s Jade formwise. Apple’s Jade lost the Mare’s Hurdle and is an unlikely runner. Yanworth comes back over hurdles from fences and is not on my shortlist. He beat Supasundae in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree over the distance last year before going chasing. Unowhatimeanharry was third in this last year as an odds on favorite and is clearly held by Sam Spinner formwise. 2012 I saw The New One in the Champion Bumper. 2013 he won a Novices’ Hurdle and 2014 he was third in the Champion Hurdle. After that he ran 5th, 4th and 5th in the same race and he takes on this new distance from a win over 2 miles. I have found Supasundae at 8/1 and am convinced he will start much shorter. I also have an each way bet on The New One at 16/1.

A Handicap Chase over 2m5f and this is a tricky one. My money will go to the favorite King’s Socks trained by David Pipe who excels in this sphere. This is a race with a lot of past big prized winners but I am happy with my 8/1 each way.

A Mare’s Novices’ Hurdle over 2m1f with Laurina the odds-on favorite.  If Mullins just finds a jockey for her she will win chased home by the winning machine Maria’s Benefit who rarely loses a race. I will take my chances on the second favorite as the each way terms are so good but I will also look to bet the exacta if odds aren’t prohibitive. Maria’s Benefit is given away at 7/1 in certain places, way to generous.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup for Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase over 3m2f! I say ”Good Luck!” to you all with a nice creamy beverage in my hand. Knowing myself I might end up with a ticket on Pendra. I have lost money on him before and why break a nice tradition?

 

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under Uncategorized

Cheltenham Day 2, 2018

Ok, so day one is over and we now have plenty of information. The course is riding heavy, but maybe not as heavy as some of us might have thought before day one. We also know that Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins are in great form despite the loss of Getaway. Benie des Dieux,Footpad and Rathvinden were very good winners for Mullins, two of them ridden by Ruby. The favorite won four out of eight races.

My betting was kind of lukewarm, but Footpad at 11/10 was a really good odds. The laying of Getaway was a good one and my second choice Summerville was good but I still didn’t have the trifecta.  The diss of Coo Star Sivola didn’t work out, he won with a head at a terrible prize.  Sizing Tennessee gave me a run for my money, leading almost all the way before finishing third for some each way money.

Samcro is the worthy favorite in the opener. The 2 miles and 5 furlongs Novices’ Hurdle. Normally splendid bumper form would be a huge plus and remember that the Irish have a good track record in this race. Favorites tend to do good as well and Samcro is as Irish as they get.  He started out in an Irish Point to Point, which he won, then showed promise in bumpers and is still unbeaten over hurdles. He comes from a Grade 1 win at Leopardstown and just about every angle spells win for Samcro. They say that Next Destination (fourth in the Champion Bumper) is a good one for Walsh/Mullins but this time he is going up against the next Champion. With odds as short as 6/4, on that is, Samcro is not a good betting proposition and there is an angle working against the two horses above. They are six years old and this race is ”always” won by a seven or eight years old. I will start day 2 on the sidelines.

RSA Novices’ Chase over the full trip (3 miles and 80 yards) looks like a smashing race. So many fantastic horses have won this race and we will see a star again this year. We are looking for seven-year-olds and the first three in the betting fits that billing. Presenting Percy is the most popular. He won a Hurdle here last year on good ground but is proven under heavy conditions and will enjoy the full support from the Irish crowd.  I will side with Black Corton trained by Paul Nicholls. He won a good prep race for this and this is a hardened Chaser with 8 wins from 11 starts (Presenting Percy is 2 from 4). 7/1 is a good odds.

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is very interesting this year with a good stayer from the flat. With form from Melbourne Cup and the Hong Kong Vase, Max Dynamite, is more than capable of winning this and compared to his flat-rating his rating over Hurdles is low. He doesn’t really fit any known angles for this race but I will definitely take my chances each way with this Mullins/Walsh world traveler available at 8/1.

The Champion Chase is all about Altior who reported to duty lame a couple of days ago. Now Nicky Henderson claims that all is good again, but Altior won’t be a horse I take odds about even or worse on. 12 of the last 18 odds-on jollies have lost in this race. I was lucky in this race last year with Special Tiara having a bit of luck to claim the crown. This year the ground is too much a worry for me and he is passed over today. Douvan hasn’t started since he was beaten in this last year and is for the Lotto-players at ridiculously low 11/4. Min looked fantastic when winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February. I have taken 7/2 and is pleased with that.

A Cross-Country-Chase is seldom a straightforward affair. McManus has got a lot of horses in this and Cause of Causes are the favorite. Since he (McManus) is a backer of significance Cause of Causes is probably the best of his runners which was proved last year when he won this. I like the pair of Vicomte du Seuil and Urgent de Gregaine who both looked good in November over this course. The conditions favor the latter and 16/1 is a fair prize for an each-way bet.

We have 22 horses declared to run in the Fred Winter handicap. A bunch of promising 4-year-olds. The favorite Act of Valor showed tremendous improvement when a ”close” 4 length second to We Have A Dream who will compete in the Triumph Hurdle. This is a handicap and Act of Valor seems very fairly treated on his latest run and on an upward path. He is likely to improve and even though this has been a race for outsiders, I will go with the favorite at 7/1. It is a huge task to try to handicap this race.

The Champion Bumper is one of my favorite races. Here we will encounter the stars of tomorrow. It is usually not worth the while to search for runners beyond those trained by Mullins. Blackbow is the highest rated horse, won at Leopardstown last Christmas and there is not much more to ask for. Yet another favorite this day, now at 5/1. Felix Desjy is the obvious threat and goes well after a break. Unbeaten so far and won’t be far away at the finish.

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under Uncategorized

Cheltenham Day 1 2018

Tomorrow is Champion Hurdle day and it feels good to enter Cheltenham week after a good Meydan this Saturday with three naps coming in, two of them at good prices.

Cheltenham is the betting Mecca of the horse-racing world and I have been fortunate enough to be there. It is worth the trip, put it on your bucket list.

We will start out by reminding ourselves that the course is projected to ride ”Heavy” on Tuesday. Normally it is faster ground, but this year the trainers won’t cry about too little watering.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is always a fascinating event and 20 runners are lining up today. Who will be the next superstar is the question? Last year saw an 25/1 shot win the race and this is not a good race for the jolly-backers with 10 of the last 13 runners shorter than 2/1 has lost. I would like to start with Nicky Hendersons Claimantakinforgan third in the Champion Bumper last year. After the unexpected loss last time out he is now 16/1 and tremendous value. The heavy favorite is Getaway with Mullins/Walsh the best combination that exist under this festival. He trounced major opponent Mengli Khan last time out and that form is not likely to be reversed. Of huge interest is also Summerville who beat second favorite Kalashnikov in a Grade 1 at Sandown. First Flow is unexposed after three great wins but I rather have 16/1 each way with Claimantakinforgan with Summerville my second choice.

The Arkle is for Novice Chaser over the sprint trip (two miles). Mullins/Walsh team up on the favorite Footpad and there is only four more runners in this field. Robinsville can safely be ruled out on form and Brain Power has failed to complete his two latest starts. Petit Mouchoir was soundly beaten by the favorite last time out which makes this a race between Footpad and Saint Calvados. The French import Saint Calvados has done nothing wrong over fences for Harry Whittington and will run a big race. The French-bred Footpad has been fantastic since switched to fences. He ”always” lost to Petit Mouchoir over hurdles but has gotten his revenge now. Both Footpad and Saint Calvados are confirmed front runners, and it is likely that Petit Mouchoir will like to lead as well. I will take 11/10 on the favorite here, knowing that he holds Petit Mouchoir on chasing form. It is very likely that the Irish Army at Cheltenham might push prices down significantly on Footpad, especially if Getaway won the first. In that case the other two contenders will offer value.

The third race is a handicap chase and Un Temps Pour Tout, trained by David Pipe, won this last year. Pipe is my angle this year, as well as the trainer, knows his handicaps and Ramses de Teillee is always thereabouts. He is 12/1 each way right now and this is a very good price in a tricky race. The favorite Coo Star Sivola is too short at 5/1 and should be avoided.

Champion Hurdle is as usual one of the best races of the year and here you should always look to the form from last year. Buveur D’Air is the reigning Champion and has only been beaten once over hurdles and he is deep odds-on here, which is a reflection of his true chances. For us who like to take on the favorite there are plenty of other options. Faugheen won this in 2015 but was absent for a long time and in this comeback campaign he has produced mixed result being fantastic after a 665 days break, but not so fantastic in two races after that. My money goes to My Tent Or Yours who was runner up last year and will run his race this year as well. I would have preferred another run after his nice win in December, but he goes well fresh and 20/1 is a fantastic each way bet.

In the Mare’s Hurdle the favorite is much better than the rest.  Apple’s Jade won this last year and is even better now. How many lengths will there be to the potential runner-up, La Bague Au Roi, who could actually be exacta value with Benie des Dieux being a popular choice for the Mullins/Walsh fans.

A Novices’ Chase for Amateur Riders over 4 miles is likely to produce unlikely outcomes. That said, class is likely to be very important and Grade 1 horses and favorites have a good record in this race. Jury Duty has the perfect profile and the rider wins more than a fifth of his races. I will take my chances with Sizing Tennessee, who likes it here and has some serious class. The jumping could be of concern, but he will get the extra distance and relish the ground. Available at 10/1 I would jump all over it if I were you.

The last race is a handicap with no direct angles for me. I will watch this one with a Guinness in my hand in front of TVG.

2 kommentarer

Filed under Uncategorized

Super Saturday 2018

I have been handicapping the desert for many years now and it is a pleasure to see that TVG is expanding their coverage of Dubai. They have been promoting today’s card during most of the week and the racing should be looking good to an American audience. Meydan now have a fast dirt track and a fast turf course – not unlike the American ones. Look at the pedigrees, American across the board (except on the turf). The only thing lacking is American jockeys, most riders down at Meydan are from Europe where the flat racing season has yet to begin.

If you just go to emiratesracing.com you will be able to download the race card and form guides for free.

Racing at Meydan this year has been very boring. Godolphin’s runners are winning practically everything and don’t be surprised if they win a couple of races today as well.

So let’s start.

The first race is a Listed race over 1 mile and one and a half furlongs on the dirt. Dirt. Remember that. Godolphin are sporting three runners among them the mighty Masar with ratings far better than the competition. Note that this colt by New Approach and was a brilliant two years old on the TURF. Masar was not beaten far at Del Mar in Breeders’ but this is unknown waters and it is inadvisable to take short odds on the class act Masar. Stablemate Last Voyage (Eskendereya) is many lengths worse than Masar on racing, but IRL it could be a different story. My best bet though is 1 Yulong Warrior by Street Cry and a Bernardini mare. Comes from two straight wins after being switched to the dirt and the extra distance shouldn’t be a problem…

The next race is a dirt sprint over 6 furlongs.

Comicas is beautifully drawn and in good form. He was beaten far when runner-up to My Catch in his last race but the draw might make him reverse the form today. Yalta has been the talk of the town for a couple of races and finally obliged latest. I don’t trust that form much and will go with Comicas in this one.

A turf sprint over 6 furlongs follows. Godolphin have 5 runners in this one and they can all win. D’Bai is likely to be popular, but the distance might be too sharp. The best horse is Ertijaal, but here the distance will be too long.There are quite a few negatives about many of the likely favorites so it could be worth the while to side with an outsider. Shillong has been in great form and is now switched to turf for the first time. With his pedigree, Dubawi – Rainfall (Oasis Dream), the grass could actually be a positive.

A dirt mile worth 200 000 dollars and two of the principals are drawn wide. Heavy Metal will likely give up too much to get a position near or at the front and Dream Castle could certainly have used a better draw in his dirt debut. Perfectly drawn in the number 1 spot we find Kimbear (USA) Temple City by a Sky Mesa mare. Kimbear had a little too much weight in his last handicaps and is better off in this Group 3 race with level weights.

The Jebel Hatta is a Group One race over One mile and one furlong. Godolphin have five runners in the race and Benbatl may be the best of them coming from a convincing Group 2 win over course and distance.  Whisky Baron could spoil the party. He is a Grade 1 winner in South Africa and will be brought forward from his first run of the year when he was soundly beaten by Janoobi who is another contender.

The sixth race is a part of the Al Maktoum Challenge and is worth 400 000 dollars. The distance is one mile and two furlongs over the dirt. Last year’s Kentucky Derby disappointment Thunder Snow is closely matched with North America on their last outing. If Team Talk takes to the dirt he could be a danger but even more interesting is Boynton (More Than Ready). He looked marvelous in his winning debut at Meydan and could be able to overcome a bad draw.

The last race is a group 2 over one and a half mile on the turf. Hawkbill (Kitten’s Joy) should win this if he is sharp enough in his comeback. The most interesting runner is Called to the Bar trained by Pia Brandt. He is lightly raced but showed great quality in a guest appearance at Belmont last year. He might not win this one, but watch out next time out.

 

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under spel

York dag 2

Kul att få se världsracing på ATG.se Vilken dag med kanonprestationer av Cracksman och Ulysses. Spelmässigt gick det helt okej efter Ulysses seger, men det var lite för många bommar runt omkring.

Det börjar med ett fint tvååringsrace där jag gillar De Bruyne Horse som jag vunnit en hel del på. Great Prospector är dock oexponerad och kanske är för bra. De Bruyne Horse kommer vara med där framme från början och blir inte lätt att ta ned och 6 gånger smeten är bra, eller iallafall tillräckligt i ett 20 hästarsfält.

I Lowther Stakes kommer regnet inte att vara någon fördel för amerikanskan Happy Like A Fool som kommer att leda länge, men knappast hela vägen och att det är 1200 meter än knappast heller en fördel. Jag gillar Scat Daddy-avkomman Special Purpose som har sett kanon ut i sina två starter och segrar och dessutom kommer vara gynnad av de extra 200 metrarna. På talet ska dock Madeleine vara överlägsen, vi är inte lika säkra och går emot.

En 19 hästars handikap kommer därnäst. Här gillar jag Godolphins Blair House, men det är tufft emot och han straffades kanske väl mycket för andraplatsen i Royal Hunt Cup på Ascot. Många kommer i full form och har höjts en hel del på slutet så det kan vara bäst att leta motbud bland hästar som tex One Word More.

I Yorkshire Oaks är Enable oslagbar så vi får leta komb eller varför inte trio? Coronet och Alluringly växlade form mellan Engelskt och Irländskt Oaks och kommer vara slagna av Enable med sex längder vilket ger utrymme åt de äldre hästarna att jaga hem Enable. Queens Trust är en världsartist, men hon såg inte rolig ut senast. Kanske behöver hon bättre bana och om det fortsätter torka upp blir hon ett roligt bud till andraplatsen. Nezwaah segrade i Pretty Polly Stakes (Gr.1) och det räcker förstås långt. 6 före 3 före 2 en större peng och 6 före 2 före 3 för en mindre peng.

Listed-racet som kommer nu får en tårögd redan innan boxarna öppnas. Mori är efter Frankel och undan fantomstoet Midday! Midday segrade 2009 i Breeders Cup Fillies and Mare Turf på Santa Anita och slog då bland andra Dynaforce. Dynaforce är nu mor till Aljezeera och fadern heter Frankel. Vilken duell vi kan vänta oss mellan dessa två lovande ston! Titta även på Curlew River som har Dubai Millenium som morfar! Mormor är Cape Verdi som segrade i Lowther Stakes just det här meetinget innan hon gick vidare och segrade i 1000 Guineas 1998!

I den avslutande stenhårda handikappen för ston gör vi det lätt för oss. Cristal Fizz är en fin treåring som skickades till Tyskland för att ta hem deras 1000 Guineas, men misslyckades liksom man redan gjort i Frankrike i motsvarigheten. Tvåårsformen är fenomenal och det finns ursäkter för förlusterna på högsta nivå. Nu blir det en första start i en handikap och talet känns lågt. Stora plånboken åker fram och så får vi se hur det slutar.

Lämna en kommentar

Filed under Uncategorized